A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
