How The Strange Season Broke the Traditional NFL Coach of the Year Mold.

Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet the current race is profoundly different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still